A Grinchlike look at 2011

Well, even a Grinch like me has to admit it: 2010's been a fantastic year for those people at Rapide. We now have around a third of the FTSE as customers; we send about 3m text messages on their behalf each month; and a growing number of those are two-way conversations rather than blasts outwards. The MD even took the whole company to Vegas to celebrate. I dunno, kids today.

So just as the tree's losing its needles and the leftover turkey's gone into its last sandwich - what's my grumpy take on 2011? Well, here are my views on it. Take them with as large a pinch of salt as you want. (I certainly do.)

1.Mobile spreads outwards. Until now, we've had "connected" (wired-in computing, like your office desktop), on-the-road computing (your laptop), and mobile phone-based computing (everything you do on a tiny screen punctuated by frustrated intakes of breath.) This is going to change, but not in the way you think. Everything's moving to mobile. New form factors like Apple's iPad will be phones soon enough, and it can't be long before "dialling a number" gives way to "clicking a name". Personally, I can't wait.

The grumpy bit: the barrier here is simple: traffic jams on the airwaves. In 2010 we saw the USA's AT&T suffering serious bandwidth problems due to unexpectedly large chunks of customers using their iPhones for data. (A lot of data.) And worldwide, mobile phone operators have been ending their all-you-can-eat data download plans as their networks wussed out. My calling plan lets me download just 50Mb of data, which barely covers email! C'mon operators, get with the programme.

2. People realise that mobile's about moods as well as messages. There's a right time to send 'em an email, a right time to phone them, and a right time to not contact them at all. At Rapide we've done a fair bit of work on what mode of communication to use when; too many companies are making elementary errors here.

The grumpy bit: well, I hardly need to spell this out, but when was the last time you enjoyed getting an SMS from a company you'd never heard of? Fair enough, they want to contact you - but snail mail or email is the way to go here, and definitely not in bulk. We don't do spam at Rapide, and you shouldn't either.

3. Marketers look at the aggregate. Now "aggregate" isn't a word I use often. But you have to do something different when you're communicating regularly with 10,000 customers instead of one, and if you're not taking the 30,000ft view you're missing an opportunity. There may be a useful bit of information from taking a survey of a dozen customers. But there are a lot more insights if you look at what thousands of customers say naturally without bringing tickboxes and questionnaires into it. (If you doubt how easy this can be, check out Rapide's Rant & Rave sentiment analysis system; it does the heavy lifting for you. And yes, I was named after half of it.)

The grumpy bit: there's a lot of excuses here for "IVR hell", where the options you hear on the phone are never the ones you want (they're just the most common ones.) So take a leaf from First Direct, everyone: always make sure there's a real person to talk to, if that's what your business depends on. And most do.

4. People stop thinking about mobile... as mobile. That's the big one for me: instead of being something "special", 3G and 4G and all the other G's just become the normal way to communicate with customers and employees. Already about a third of young adults have no hardwired phone; it's a natural step to cut the cord completely.  

The grumpy bit here: see point 1. I really hope the network operators can build out their cellular infrastructure fast enough. But even if they don't... I've got a last point.

Perhaps most surprisingly... 

... wait for it, this is a good 'un...

5. SMS moves to the core.  Yes, good old text messaging hits back. Why? Because it's short, simple, and works just about everywhere - it can support practically any other communications effort and add value. Before you protest, consider the value of an SMS short code in your storefront where customers can text in their impressions, or simple SMS confirmations that double-check that a booking was made correctly. SMS can act as all those little nudges that send response rates skywards, and best of all it's easy as pie to add on to anything you're doing.

The grumpy bit: marketers can so easily go overboard on things like this. Newsflash, people: customers don't need to be in constant contact with you. Shock horror, they don't really want to be. What matters is touching them at the moment they want to be touched, or the moment where your little bit of communication can make the biggest difference. So let's talk to our customers, folks, but not be like that boring chap at the Christmas party who never lets you get a word in edgeways.

And that's the kind of prediction I like: Much as it pains me to say it, folks - a Happy New Year to you all.